Canadian Mortgage Arrears Are Rising Fast — What Homeowners Should Know in 2026

By Bavneet

NestDigest analysis: We reviewed arrears data from the Canadian Bankers Association, CMHC, Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada to see how fast mortgage stress is rising, where it is concentrated and how today’s numbers compare with earlier periods.

How much have Canadian mortgage arrears risen since 2022?

The CBA arrears rate was 0.14% in September 2022, the lowest in its table, which starts in January 1995. By May 2026 it was 0.29%, the highest since August 2016. The number of mortgages in arrears rose 27.2% in the year to May, from 11,058 to 14,061.

Published rates are rounded. Using the underlying counts (7,305 of about 5.10 million mortgages in September 2022, and 14,061 of about 4.93 million in May 2026), the rate rose about 2.0 times. “Roughly doubled” is the accurate description.

For perspective, today’s rate is below the 1997 peak and below the roughly 0.45% reached after the 2008–09 financial crisis.

Does a doubled arrears rate mean widespread default?

Rather than widespread default, the data points to a growing pocket of borrowers who are struggling to keep up with payments.

Which provinces have the highest mortgage arrears?

The national figure hides wide differences. This CBA table covers nine institutions: BMO, CIBC, National Bank, RBC, Scotiabank, TD, Manulife Bank, Laurentian Bank and Equitable Bank.

The change since 2022 is more striking. Ontario’s count rose from 1,318 in September 2022 to 6,953 in May 2026. That is 5,635 of the national increase of 6,756, or about 83%. Saskatchewan still has the highest rate, but it has fallen from 0.59%, and Alberta’s rate has fallen too. Rates roughly doubled or more in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec.

What does CMHC’s broader data show?

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) measures delinquency differently, using Equifax credit data across all lenders. Its Residential Mortgage Industry Report puts the national arrears rate at 0.25% in Q1 2026, up from 0.23% a year earlier. CMHC says mortgage arrears remain low by historical standards, with pockets of significant stress, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver.

CMHC’s insured portfolio is a separate population. Its second-quarter 2026 results put the arrears rate on all CMHC-insured loans at 0.33%, up slightly from 0.32% at the end of 2025. Do not compare that directly with the CBA’s 0.29% or the 0.25% Equifax figure.

Which lenders have the highest mortgage arrears?

Banks hold about 80% of the market, so the CBA data captures most of it. But CMHC’s data shows the highest arrears at mortgage investment entities, which lend to borrowers who may not qualify at banks. They hold only about 1.3% of mortgages, so their weight in the national rate is small.

Are Ontario and Toronto mortgage arrears rising?

Yes, from a low base. CMHC reports that the national 90-plus-day rate rose to 0.24% in Q4 2025 from 0.21%, the highest since Q1 2021. It says the increase was concentrated in Ontario, especially Toronto.

Those are rates, not shares of borrowers in trouble: Toronto’s 0.29% means about three in every thousand mortgages. CMHC’s February 2026 Housing Observer analysis, based on Equifax data, expects arrears rates to keep rising moderately across Canada from late 2025 to late 2026, with Toronto and Vancouver most at risk. It says Toronto’s rate has more than quadrupled from its post-pandemic low, and it projects about 0.34% by December 2026, up from about 0.26% in Q3 2025. The forecast assumes the policy rate falls by the end of 2026.

For local context, see our analysis of the GTA housing market and trade-war uncertainty and our earlier look at whether the GTA market was turning a corner.

Why do mortgage arrears follow the job market?

CMHC says CBA arrears have tracked the unemployment rate closely over time, with a lag. A Bank of Canada staff paper finds the two highly correlated over 35 years. Canada’s unemployment rate was 6.7% in March 2026, per CMHC citing Statistics Canada. CMHC adds that the arrears rate is currently slightly below its usual relationship with unemployment, so a weaker labour market is the main risk to watch.

How much can a mortgage renewal raise your payment?

Many homeowners who locked in during the low-rate years of the early 2020s have renewed, or soon will, at higher rates. CMHC says 2025 was the peak of the renewal wave and that about 13% fewer borrowers renew in 2026, but the size of the payment shock is likely similar. In February 2026 it said more than 1.5 million households had already renewed at higher rates, with another million set to renew within a year. For what drives fixed-rate pricing, see our explainer on Canada’s $30B mortgage bond move and your fixed rate.

As an illustration, a $400,000 balance with 20 years remaining costs about $2,023 a month at 2.00% and about $2,521 at 4.50%. That is roughly $498 more per month, or 24.6%.

That extra cost competes with groceries, utilities, insurance and property taxes, as we explored in Canadian Household Budgets Are Still Under Pressure. For the rate backdrop, see our note on the Bank of Canada rate hold.

Are household finances improving or worsening?

Both, depending on the measure. Statistics Canada reported that the household debt service ratio fell to 14.52% in Q2 2026 from 14.68%, as income grew 2.1% and debt payments grew 1.0%. Households held about $1.76 of credit market debt per $1 of disposable income, down from $1.79 in Q1. The debt service ratio peaked at 15.16% in Q1 2023.

Why mortgage arrears lag household stress

Missing a mortgage payment is rarely the first sign of trouble. CMHC says rising arrears on non-mortgage products are a leading indicator of mortgage arrears, because borrowers tend to miss other payments before risking their home. Its Q1 2026 credit-card arrears rate was 1.87%, far above the mortgage rate.

Why is the number of bank mortgages falling?

The CBA’s count of mortgages fell from 5,115,951 in June 2022 to 4,925,389 in May 2026, a 3.7% drop, even as total Canadian mortgage debt grew 4.24% in the year to June 2026. Two points matter. First, the smaller base explains little: using the 2022 peak count, the May 2026 rate would be about 0.27%, not 0.29%. Second, the CBA covers nine banks, so lending by credit unions and other lenders sits outside it. CMHC reports that credit union originations rose 28% in Q3 2025 from a year earlier, and that the Big 6 banks’ share of originations fell 6.9 percentage points, partly a base-year effect. A falling count does not mean Canadians are paying down housing debt.

Is Canada facing a mortgage crisis?

The evidence supports a measured answer. Stress is rising from pandemic-era lows, and Toronto and some non-bank lenders show more strain. But the CBA rate is still below its 1997 and 2010 levels, CMHC calls the system structurally stable, and the debt service ratio improved in Q2. If arrears keep rising while the job market weakens, the picture turns more concerning. If incomes keep outpacing debt and renewal pressure fades, some stress could level off. Canadian arrears are also defined differently from U.S. delinquency figures, so avoid comparing them directly. For the cross-border rate picture, see our U.S.–Canada mortgage rate analysis.

What should you watch next?

The CBA arrears rate and the job market

Sustained increases through late 2026 and into 2027, alongside rising unemployment, would be more meaningful than one month.

Toronto and Ontario delinquency

Regional stress can hide inside a low national average.

Renewal payment changes

The wave has peaked, but borrowers are still moving from older contracts into new ones.

Non-mortgage and non-bank lender arrears

Credit cards, lines of credit and mortgage investment entities often show strain before banks do.

What can homeowners do before a payment becomes a problem?

Budget for the renewal payment, not today’s. Test your monthly budget at a higher rate well before your term ends.

Compare total cost, not just the rate. Amortization, term length, prepayment options, penalties and payment structure all matter. Start reviewing several months before renewal.

Call your lender early. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada’s guideline on existing mortgage loans in exceptional circumstances expects federally regulated lenders to consider tailored support for homeowners in severe financial difficulty on a primary residence. Relief can include waived fees or extended amortization, and options are wider before payments are missed. Eligibility and terms vary by lender.

Buyers: separate “qualify” from “afford.” Our guide to mortgage pre-approval and financing for a pre-construction purchase explains the difference, and our piece on whether to wait to buy in Ontario covers timing. If you hold a mortgage, also budget for repairs; see the cost of delaying home repairs.

How we analyzed the data

• We compared the CBA’s bank-level arrears data with CMHC’s broader Equifax-based delinquency data and Statistics Canada’s household debt indicators. These datasets cover different lender populations and periods, so we do not treat their rates as interchangeable or combine them into one rate.
• The CBA series is the national table linked below. The latest month we could access is May 2026. The rate held at its 0.14% low from June through September 2022; we use September for comparison.
• Percentage-point changes, the 83% Ontario share, the 2.0 times figure and the 0.27% denominator check are NestDigest arithmetic on published counts. Published rates are rounded.
• The renewal example is an illustration, not a lender quote. The CMHC forecast comes from a February 2026 analysis and assumes a falling policy rate.
• We will update this article when new CBA or CMHC data is released.

Frequently asked questions

What does “mortgage in arrears” mean in Canada?

In the CBA’s statistics, it means mortgage payments are overdue by three or more months.

What is the mortgage arrears rate in Canada right now?

0.29% at CBA member banks in May 2026, and 0.25% in CMHC’s Q1 2026 report. The two measures use different lender coverage and methods.

Are mortgage arrears rising in Ontario?

Yes, from a low base. The CBA’s Ontario rate rose from 0.06% in September 2022 to 0.32% in May 2026. CMHC’s Ontario delinquency rate rose from 0.20% to 0.27% in the year to Q4 2025.

Are mortgage arrears higher than during the 2008–09 recession?

No. The CBA rate reached about 0.45% after the financial crisis and 0.65% in January 1997, compared with 0.29% in May 2026.

What should I do if I can’t afford my mortgage renewal?

Contact your lender before you miss a payment, ask about amortization changes and other relief options, and compare offers from other lenders.